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Thursday, July 16, 2009

Interview And Short Biography Of Rakesh Jhunjhunwala Published In UAE Newspapaer

An interview and short biography of Rakesh Jhunjhunwala published in UAE Newspapaer. Checkout some of the stocks mentioned in this article

On the day I meet him, Rakesh Jhunjhunwala is front-page news. He has just told ET Now, a new financial news channel, that he thinks India’s Sensex index will touch the 19,000-point mark before the end of this year. That would be a 30 per cent rise from today’s prices, even during global economic turmoil, and it has won him the top spot on both the channel and the website of the Economic Times, its sister paper.

Interview And Short Biography Of Rakesh Jhunjhunwala Published In UAE NewspapaerThis is exactly the kind of call that made Mr Jhunjhunwala the star of India’s bull run between 2003 and last year’s market crash, and the most sought-after commentator on India’s budget unveiled last week. He was one of the few businessmen willing to publicly criticise a budget many felt would be bad for investors.

When I am ushered into his office, his bulky frame is propped up in front of three screens of flickering red and green stock prices. His eyes do not leave the constantly updating quotes for more than 15 seconds at any point in the interview. It seems that I am lucky to get even half of his attention.

I ask him what has prompted his new phase of bullishness. “Markets are dynamic, they’re constantly changing,” he says as he watches those markets morph on screen. “They’ve got reversed now. I think that, when at last confidence comes back, a lot of other things will come back.”

In 2005, when the Sensex had tipped above 5,000, Mr Jhunjhunwala declared it could hit 25,000 within five to six years. That brash prediction, not to mention his larger-than-life persona, helped him become a fixture on India’s financial news networks. And he came close to seeing what some considered a ridiculously bullish forecast come true. At the end of the bull run in January last year, the Sensex had passed 21,000.

Since the market crash, the 31 publicly traded stocks of which Mr Jhunjhunwala holds more than a 1 per cent stake lost about 60 per cent of their combined value, even underperforming the Sensex.

I ask him if he ever doubted his judgements on the India story. “Well, I examined my thoughts again,” he concedes. “But I could never lose my conviction about India’s growth. I held on to my stocks, very much so.”

Doing so has resulted in him losing much of the paper wealth that propelled him into the Forbes Rich List last year. “I have much less than what most people think, but much more than I need,” he tells me.

Mr Jhunjhunwala is frequently dubbed “India’s Warren Buffett”, but in many ways the two could not be more different. The Oracle of Omaha is a teetotaller and a non-smoker. Mr Jhunjhunwala constantly alternates between his preferred 555 cigarettes, sweet chewing paan and Indian snacks. He is known for his taste for cigars and Blue Label whisky.

While Mr Buffett still lives in the same house in Omaha he had when he began, Mr Jhunjhunwala has moved his family into a plush flat in Mumbai’s upmarket Malabar Hill neighbourhood. The only time he breaks away from his trading screens is when he shows me a slide show of his mountain-top mansion in the Mumbai hill station of Lonavla, one designed by the Indian architect Nitin Killawala.

Like Mr Buffett, however, Mr Jhunjhunwala is primarily a value investor and both are willing to share their investments and the rationale behind them with the public.

When Mr Jhunjhunwala invests, it is generally in unloved small and mid-cap stocks, such as Geometric, Zen Technologies and Aptech in the software sector, consumer goods companies such as Agrotech Foods and Titan watches, and service companies such as Tops Securities and a school management firm. None is really a household name.

“Rakesh is a classic bottom-up stock-picker, who gets into companies with strong managements and/or compelling long-term stories and then holds them through market cycles,” says Shankar Sharma, the managing director of First Global, who has been seen as the bear to Mr Jhunjhunwala’s bull. “I can’t see too many flaws in his make-up as a long-term investor.”

Mr Jhunjhunwala says his fascination with balance sheets began young. “I had a childhood love for stocks,” he says. “My father used to invest a bit and I used to talk about it with him in the evening. I was a very curious child, so I was always quizzing my dad. He said, ‘Instead of quizzing me all the time, why don’t you find out yourself’?”

This enchantment with profit-and-loss figures continued into his studies as a chartered accountant at Mumbai’s main business school, Sydenham College. He always knew he wanted to be in the market, although it was a business frowned upon by his family.

His father was a bureaucrat, a commissioner in India’s income tax department. The Jhunjhunwalas are from Rajasthan’s Marwari business community, traders in goods rather than on the Bombay Stock Exchange, which at the time was dominated by Gujaratis. “I initially wanted to become a broker, but I didn’t have the capital to be a broker, so I started investing,” Mr Jhunjhunwala says.

He entered the market in 1984, aged 25, with a 5,000-rupee investment (equivalent to about Dh1,000 today) in the iron-ore exporter Sesa Goa. Just three years later, he had turned that into 10 million rupees.

A quarter of a century later, Mr Jhunjhunwala has an office in Nariman Point, India’s financial district, where the walls bear line drawings of Mr Buffett, George Soros, John Templeton, Peter Lynch and other legendary investors, each accompanied by a few of their pithiest quotes written out in italic script. There is also a prayer room occupied by Ganesh, Lakshmi and other Hindu deities. “We pray that this room remains the best used part of our property for our future prosperity,” a sign reads.

Each of them, from Lynch to Lakshmi, have made him the businessman he is today, Mr Jhunjhunwala says. “Markets are my life, they’re my passion.” He does take time off, but not without his BlackBerry. However, he protests that looking at his BlackBerry is the second thing he does every day. The first is kissing his daughter.

Before his partner Utpal Sheth joined in 2004, Mr Jhunjhunwala was a one-man army, operating out of tiny offices in the warren-like streets around Dalal Street, Mumbai’s historic stock market district.

“We’ve gone from being ‘the wild east’ to one of the world’s most developed markets,” he says. “It’s more organised, more regulated. As the size and the breadth of the market increases, it will be more difficult to manipulate.”

Since the dark days of March, India’s Sensex has rallied almost 50 per cent, its biggest quarterly gain in 17 years. It is starting to look as if Mr Jhunjhunwala’s prediction of a long bull run may have been right, albeit one interrupted by a global financial crisis he could never have predicted.

Asked to list his reasons to be positive on India, Mr Jhunjhunwala veers into delphic, almost poetic language: “That India is a tortoise, slow but sure; that the forces that are driving India are irreversible; that in India everything is bottom up, not top down; and that India is biological.”

Asked what he means by “biological”, he says: “What is India? India is organised chaos, and therefore growth has never come through order, always through chaos. What’s driven India’s growth is the democracy, its demographic advantage and the tolerant nature of the Indian people.”

Checkout: Rakesh Jhunjhunwala's latest portfolio

Read More About Rakesh Jhunjhunwala

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Tuesday, July 14, 2009

20 Stocks You Must Buy - Forbes India Stock Picks

Forbes India magazine had recently published a list of 20 stocks you must buy. These stocks could prove winner in future.

The Indian markets took a severe beating last year. Valuation benchmarks were so distorted that even penny stocks began to look respectable in comparison. So how do you get the juice and avoid the dregs?

Remember that the financial crisis, like Swine flu, came from foreign shores. So avoid stocks with global linkages, mostly. Go for companies that feed off domestic demand.

Thus, the prospects for automobile companies may look better if they continue to get access to cheap raw material. But that may not be the case for metal and oil suppliers, who still suffer the overhang of poor prices globally. We think four themes act as superb filters to get to the cream. Within these four themes, we have picked companies that have high return on capital employed, profit and revenue growth along with a strong connection to the domestic market. This is by no means an exhaustive list. In our judgment, the companies we’ve selected exemplify the kind of plays investors will benefit from. There may well be several other stocks among the 4,000-odd listed companies that could qualify to be selected under each of these categories.

This list is designed to offer a variety of opportunities for both the long-term value investor as well as those with a slightly higher risk appetite.

Checkout the list classified under various heads of top stock picks from Forbes India.

Consumer Durables (FMCG Sector) Stock Picks

Infrastructure Sector Stock Picks

Banking, Insurance, Retail and Airlines Stock Picks

Volatile & Trading Stocks For Short Term Gains


You may want to checkout: Stock Market in 2009 - Stocks to Buy

Source: Forbes Business Magazine

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Stocks You Must Buy - Volatile & Trading Stocks For Short Term Gains

The Vulture Play
These stocks have fallen like there’s no bottom. But the levels at which they are trading offer huge opportunities.

Strategy: Buy on rumours and sell on news.

Suzlon:
Debt is high and so are the receivables. But Tulsi Tanti is willing to dilute his stake and meet commitments. If US President Barack Obama backs energy generation from green sources, Suzlon’s 5 MW wind turbines will be hot. The stock has gained nearly 300 percent since the time it fell to Rs. 35.

Ranbaxy:
The last 12 months have been bad. Sales are down, research hasn’t paid off and US FDA is after it for manufacturing lapses. But the new Japanese owner Daiichi Sankyo has had great successes in research and working with the FDA. Expect them to put Ranbaxy back on an even keel.

NIIT:
As IT crashed so did the IT trainer. Its stock fell 85 percent to Rs. 14. But it is moving beyond IT and is training professionals for banking jobs. The amount spent on education doubled in the last five years and NIIT grew twice as fast, quadrupling its top line. The stock has recovered to half its 52-week high.

Wockhardt:
Its core business is in fine fettle. Its problems are foreign loan repayments and derivative losses. Banks are taking over the company operations and Habil Khorakiwala has put some businesses on the block to pay off debtors. Wockhardt’s strong cash flow should return it to good health in two years.

Hindalco:
The acquisition of Novelis tripled Hindalco’s sales but caused an 11 percent decline in net profits. But aluminum prices are rising and credit is beginning to flow. Hindalco’s nine-month profits look nice. It now has the space to fix Novelis. Tricky but not impossible.

Risk: This one’s clearly a high risk strategy. There could be serious heart ache before the gains come.


Other stocks recommended in "20 Stocks You Must Buy - Forbes India Stock Picks"

Consumer Durables (FMCG Sector) Stock Picks

Infrastructure Sector Stock Picks

Banking, Insurance, Retail and Airlines Stock Picks

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Stocks You Must Buy - Banking, Insurance, Retail and Airlines Stock Picks

The Liberalisation Play
Government moves out, lets in private capital, it works more efficiently and delivers great returns. That’s liberalisation. The new government has the mandate to open up sectors like banking, insurance, retail and airlines to private investors. When it does, be there.

Strategy: Simply select the best performers in these sectors.

Crisil:
The 800-pound gorilla of rating agencies, it rates 1,000 firms today. If the financial sector is liberalised, that number could go up to 10,000. Crisil has retained earnings of 75 percent with an ROCE of 42 percent. It is the fourth largest credit rating agency in the world.

ICRA:
There is room for both Crisil and ICRA in the space. At Rs. 788, the company is getting close to its 52-week high of Rs. 900. But the number doesn’t capture the potential arising from RBI’s new rule that all debt products be rated.

HDFC Bank:
A cautious and solid bank, it is safe because its government bond holdings are 3 percent over the statutory liquidity ratio (SLR) requirement.Fiscal liberalisation will benefit this bank because it is in a position to scale up quickly. At Rs. 1,569, the price looks steep based on 2009-10 P/E multiple of 4. This is very much the stock for those who like conservative growth.

Kingfisher Airlines:
The company has a debt-equity ratio of 3:1. And it makes losses. If foreign capital is allowed, you can be sure of one thing: Vijay Mallya will make sure Kingfisher gets it. That will make life a lot easier for the airline.

Oracle Financial:
It suffered when oreign banks went broke. But its earnings jumped 77 percent and revenues rose 23 percent in 2008-09. As its clients come off the ventilator, they will need to be rewired. Oracle Financial will be waiting.

Risk: The ambiguity of regulatory changes, however, gives them some additional risk. Given that US banks have behaved so badly, it is going to be hard for government to liberalise the financial sector.


Other stocks recommended in "20 Stocks You Must Buy - Forbes India Stock Picks"

Consumer Durables (FMCG Sector) Stock Picks

Infrastructure Sector Stock Picks

Volatile & Trading Stocks For Short Term Gains

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Stocks You Must Buy - Infrastructure Sector Stock Picks

The Infrastructure Play
India needs new roads, ports, airports, railway lines and huge amounts of power. Apart from steel and cement, there are several ancillary plays as well. For instance, warehouse network will be needed along the roads and near ports. As more small towns get connected to big cities through roads, vehicle sales will benefit.

Strategy: Not good for paying school fees; great for college education kitty.

Blue Star:
Two decades to reach Rs. 1,000 crore in sales; two years to reach Rs. 2,000 crore in 2008. Non-core businesses are gone and 90 percent of revenues come from refrigeration and cooling products. It’s almost debt-free with an ROCE of over 50 percent. Growing demand for cold storage, outsourcing outfits and other commercial offices in Tier II cities put the estimated non-residential demand for air conditioning at Rs. 38,000 crore.

BHEL:
For 2009-10, the company is increasing its capacity from 10 GW to 15 GW. Capacity additions are ahead of schedule. The slowdown in the global economy has brought down input costs significantly. The company has also taken control of its salary costs that were eroding its profit margins. BHEL will be among the top beneficiaries as India begins to add 20,000 MW of generation capacity each year for the next five years.

Power Finance Corporation:
At about 25 percent, the company’s net profit margin is close to what the best software companies earn at half their price-to-earnings ratio. This public sector company also enjoys the preferred lender status for all the mega power projects in the country. Its employee expenses are just 1 percent of sales.

Mahindra & Mahindra:
Rural India is earning well because of infrastructure boom. M&M’s SUVs are selling briskly and its market share in the SUV space has gone from 51 percent to 57 percent in the last two years. A week after Xylo was launched, M&M received 9,000 bookings, or one-fifth of its annual SUV sales. The stock may be fully priced now but the upshot comes from prosperity in the hinterland that better infrastructure will bring.

Allcargo Global Logistics:
This stock was one of the earliest to recover after it fell dramatically in October. It has already recovered all the lost ground as the company managed to keep its net profits margin above 15 percent. The stock is available at a P/E of 17 on trailing earnings, just as expensive as the broad market. Allcargo, a complete logistics provider, is positioned well to exploit the projected 17 percent in port traffic and the increasing trend of outsourcing of logistics by manufacturing companies.

Risk: Long payback periods are par for the course in infrastructure. As a result, earnings in the near term could be depressed, often in proportion to the borrowed funds. If costs of funds go up, returns could diminish. In some cases, regulatory glitches can also slow down the process as is the case with mega power plants coming up in Uttar Pradesh.


Other stocks recommended in "20 Stocks You Must Buy - Forbes India Stock Picks"

Consumer Durables (FMCG Sector) Stock Picks

Banking, Insurance, Retail and Airlines Stock Picks

Volatile & Trading Stocks For Short Term Gains

More on Realty & Infrastructure stocks

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Stocks You Must Buy - Consumer Durables (FMCG Sector) Stock Picks

The Consumer Play
Between 2000 and 2005, nearly a third of the incremental expenditure came from the middle class. Their non-food expenditure rose 70 percent, while expenditure on education doubled. In these years, as per capita income rose 80 percent, Indians also increased their expenses by nearly the same degree.

The same theme will play out in the coming years. The five broad areas to look for companies are: food, essential non-food, education, healthcare (lifestyle) and discretionary expenditure that will include consumer durables and automobiles.

Strategy: Buy it, stash it and have a good night’s sleep.

Page Industries:
A small company that makes a small product with big margins: male underwear. This Rs. 200-crore company makes the Jockey brand and has a net margin of 12 percent and ROCE of 36 percent. The company has effectively positioned its brand in a largely unbranded and unorganised Rs. 900 crore innerwear market. The company is worth a little over $100 million — cheap to even buy as an ongoing business for global competitors.

Pidilite Industries:
Pidilite has brands like Fevicol, M-Seal, car polish Motomax and other assorted consumer art materials and specialised home paints. The three brands are also clear market leaders in their category. The company is available at a market capitalisation of 1.6 times its sales. With a sales growth rate of more than 22 percent for the last five years, there is a lot of steam left as its brands touch fast-growing areas like education, home décor and automobiles.

Dabur:
This company has focus. Five years ago, Dabur got out of the pharmaceutical business and put all its effort, like the best brand companies, behind five of its brands. Since then, its ROCE has consistently remained above 50 percent. It touched 80 percent in 2008. Dabur strategy of focussing on health foods like fruit juices sold under its Real brand is starting to pay dividends.

Procter and Gamble Hygiene:
Over the last three years, the money that P&G invested did not translate into market cap gains. The worm has now turned. Its feminine hygiene line, Whisper, grew at 21 percent and is also the category leader in value terms. Its ROCE, which started dipping since 2006, has again picked up indicating that its new investments are now paying dividends. The stock is trading at its three years highs but is still priced 20 percent below its peers.

Marico:
Till 2008-09 came by, the company’s sales and profits had grown for 30 consecutive quarters, indicating a stable track record. Over the last five years, the company averaged a 20 percent growth in sales and profits. It recently launched its Saffola range of food products, which is expected to give the company its next round of growth. The stock looks fully priced but its international business and Kaya Skin Clinics have started to deliver returns. Analysts expect these businesses to expand rapidly in the coming years.

Risk: People love this sector when the chips are down. But when bulls are roaming the streets, returns from this sector fall. These stocks have higher valuations than the general market, making them look expensive.


Other stocks recommended in "20 Stocks You Must Buy - Forbes India Stock Picks"

Infrastructure Sector Stock Picks

Banking, Insurance, Retail and Airlines Stock Picks

Volatile & Trading Stocks For Short Term Gains

Also Read: Top 10 FMCG Stocks To Buy Now

More on Stocks in Retail-FMCG

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Monday, July 13, 2009

Good Mid Cap Stock From Shipping Business - Mercator Lines Ltd

Mercator Lines, as part of a strategy to de-risk the cyclical nature of its core shipping business, entered the offshore drilling business with the delivery of a Rs 1,000-crore jack-up rig. The rig was immediately deployed on a three-year contract with ONGC, through GE Shipping.


It is common practice for new players such as Mercator Lines, which don't have the required technical experience, to route their contracts through experienced intermediaries. The rig has been chartered at a daily rate of $92,700 plus profit-sharing. It can work in 350 feet water depth and drill up to 30,000 feet. Being a new and technically superior rig, with 'high pressure, high temperature' capability, the rig can command a premium over other rigs.Mercator has also paid an additional premium to the Singapore-based shipyard for pre-poning the delivery of this rig by three weeks.

The company is likely to book around a fortnight's worth of revenues or nearly Rs 7 crore in FY09, which will be very small in its consolidated turnover of Rs 2,000 crore. However, in FY10, the rig would single-handedly contribute nearly 7% of the company's revenues.

Mercator's consolidated revenues grew a healthy 67% y-o-y to Rs 1,673.1 crore in the first nine months of FY09, as its long-term contracts helped to minimize the impact of a sharp fall in spot shipping freight rates. Its operating profit margin also improved 460 basis points y-o-y to 44.1% during this period.

Mercator has diversified into other non-core businesses such as the supply of dredgers and coal mining in Indonesia. These non-core activities are expected to represent around 10% of the topline in FY09, which would shoot up to 20% next year.

Market Cap 1,066.68
EPS (TTM) 7.67
P/E 5.89
P/C 3.28
* Book Value 45.91
* Price/Book 0.98
Div(%) 110.00
Div Yield(%) 2.43
Market Lot 1.00
Face Value 1.00
Industry P/E 5.19

This stock is held by many good mutual funds buying mid cap stocks in their portfolio.

It looks like to be a good stock to buy at dips. Investors should buy stocks with 2-3 years investment period for good returns.

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Sunday, July 12, 2009

Top 10 FMCG Stocks To Buy Now

FMCG companies have come out as distinct winners of the Budget. The Budget has allocated a lot of funds to rural India. In fact, in the post-Budget rally, the FMCG index of the BSE has outperformed the Sensex by giving a return of over 4% against a decline of almost 10% by the Sensex.

Otherwise also, since, the FMCG is a domestic demand driven sector, it is expected to do well. Monsoon is a concern but analysts expect it to improve. Larger companies with strong pricing power will do better. Here is a list of best stocks to buy from FMCG sector published in Sunday ET with recommendations of top stock brokerage houses.

Large Cap Stocks

ITC
CMP: Rs 210

The cigarette industry was pleasantly surprised to see unchanged excise duties on cigarettes. We estimate 4% volume growth for ITC in FY10 and FY11. The Agri division has exited low-margin commodity businesses and focusing on high-margin leaf tobacco exports, which will increase overall margin. ITC has appreciated by about 12% post budget.

NESTLE INDIA
CMP: Rs 1,997

Nestle India is best placed to ride on the expected growth in processed food market due to strong technology of the parent company. Nestle has taken several steps to increase volume growth increased focus on popularly positioned products, lowered the entry-level price point in chocolates from Rs 3 to Rs 2, increased ad and marketing expenditure.


Mid Cap Stocks

BRITANNIA INDUSTRIES
CMP:Rs 1,580

Britannias sales growth remains robust. The continued consumers shift from unorganised to branded biscuits will stimulate strong growth in premium biscuits. Strategy of focusing more on the branded biscuit category, would help Britannia to improve the profitability. We expect the companys EBITDA margin to expand in FY11.

MARICO
CMP: Rs 81

Marico received approval from the Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission to list its 100% subsidiary in the country, known as Marico Bangladesh (MBL). The Bangladesh operations of Marico achieved sales and net profit of Rs 225 crore and Rs 25 crore respectively in FY09. The business has grown at a CAGR of 71% over 3 years.

Top 10 FMCG Stocks To Buy NowSmall Cap Stocks


RUCHI SOYA
CMP: Rs 33

Ruchi Soya is one of the largest players in the domestic edible oil market. It has the largest processing capacity in India. However, there were lot of volatility in the commodity prices but it has been able to register a consistent growth. Also, once the oil prices starts climbing up it is going to reap the benefit.

MCLEOD RUSSEL
CMP: Rs 118

The tea price boom helped McLeaod Russel to post 61.48% growth in its net profit in last quarter. It plans to acquire Vietnam based Phu Ben tea company for $2 million. McLeod, being the worlds largest bulk tea player, will continue to gain from increased preference to tea world over.

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Friday, July 10, 2009

Good Small Cap Stock To Buy - Sarla Performance Fibers Ltd

Sarla Performance Fibers Ltd. (formerly Sarla Polyester Ltd) is a 100% Export Oriented Unit (EOU) manufacturing Polyester, Polyamide (Nylon) Texturised yarns & conventional/air covered Lycra/Spandex yarns.

Good Small Cap Stock To Buy - Sarla Performance Fibers LtdSarla Performance Fibers ,is one of the well established and niche companies exporting Regular as well as High Tenacity Polyester and Nylon Yarns. It started its operations 15 years back as a commodity manufacturer of Man Made Fiber. However, in the last five years, it has successfully transformed its business strategy and implemented a niche business model. It has an installed capacity of 11464 MTPA for manufacturing yarns in Silvassa and a Dyeing unit at Vapi.

The companys emphasis has been to focus on niche end user applications, higher value added yarns to leading global apparel brands and companies. While it still manufactures some commodity yarns, the major focus has been in the area of Performance Fibers. To aid the strategy further, the company has also set up a manufacturing facility under JV in 2006 in Honduras, Central America. This would enable the company to tap the North American market, the largest market for performance yarns in the world. With this JV, it now positions the company to supply the global textile majors such as Delta, Hanes Brands Inc.,Fruit of The Loom, Russell etc. due to global positioning for supplying of its products.

With the signing of the CAFTA treaty major garment and apparel companies (especially North American Companies) are shifting their manufacturing facilities to Central America resulting in this region becoming a fast growing textile manufacturing hub .The company is also amongst the very few Nylon 6 producers in the country and intend to further expand the value chain.

Market Cap 40.21
* EPS (TTM) 11.98
* P/E 4.83
P/C 3.07
* Book Value 98.51
* Price/Book 0.59
Div(%) 35.00
Div Yield(%) 6.05
Market Lot 1.00
Face Value 10.00
Industry P/E 4.18

Promoters are aggresive and they are commited to make lot of shareholders wealth in the long run.They themselves have taken warrants at 150 odd rs which speaks about their confidence in the company.Valuation wise too its quoting at lower single digit one year forward basis.

A great small cap stock to buy for the long run.

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Wednesday, July 8, 2009

Stock Market Tips For Short Term Gains

Following are the stock tips based on inputs from stock market punters. These tips are strictly for short term gains and should only be considered as medium risk high return stock tips. Small chunk of money can be invested for short gains.

1)Scripscan:Tube Investments of India Ltd
cmp:48
After taking a huge beating on the bourses,Tube Investments of India Ltd is back in the reckoning.Sources close to the management claim that the company is going to do exceptionally well in the coming quarters.Even some of the mumbai based HNIS are active on the counter again.The scrip at present is quoting at 48 and punters are betting for 60 odd in the short term.The company also has an insurance division which itself if value would come more than the present marketcap of til.These is a counter which may surprise one in the long run.

2)Scripscan:Subex systems Ltd
cmp:68
Plenty of buying is happening on the subex counter on expectations of bumper numbers in the coming quarters.Market participants feels worst is certainly over for the counters and good times may have just set in.Subex has already tripled in just a matter of 3 months.Informed circles suggest there can be much more upsides in the counter as operators have started taking much interest in the counter.In light of these facts one can take a call on the counter at dips.People who bought at lower levels may sell half the quantity to make it an investment free bet.

3)Scripscan:Panacea Biotec Ltd
cmp:125
If the market grapevine is to be beleived,then heavy accumulation is taking place in the counter since last few trading sessions.Resuluts are expected to be encouraging.Rumuor of a libeal bonus issue has been a strong buzz for the counter offlate. Further buying the fraternity cannot be ruled out. Market participants feels the counter to hit the roof fairly soon.

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Small Cap Stock To Buy - Navin Fluorine International

Navin Fluorine International was born out of a restructuring exercise of its parent, Mafatlal Industries. It has been operating the largest integrated fluorochemical plant in India since 1967.

Small Cap Stock To Buy - Navin Fluorine International
There are three segments to its business – speciality fluorochemicals, bulk fluoride and refrigerants. The speciality fluorochemicals are used in making agrochemicals, antibiotics for the pharmaceutical industry, pigment for the petrochemical industry and toothpaste for the personal-care industry.

Small Cap Stock To Buy - Navin Fluorine InternationalBulk fluoride is used by aluminium companies. Two more products derived from fluorine, CFC and HCFC 22, are used in refrigeration. CFCs (chlorofluorocarbons) are used primarily as refrigerant gases, the production of which is being phased out under the Montreal Protocol. CFC is being replaced by HCFC (hydrochlorofluorocarbon) for air-conditioning and as refrigerant gases. HCFC-based gases will be phased out by 2040. HFC 134a is the next generation gas after CFC and HCFC.

Currently, Navin Fluorine imports HFC 134a and sells it in the domestic market.The company has been stagnant for the past several years. The core business of fluorine is slow. Offtake depends on sales growth of air-conditioners, aluminium products and the pharma sector. The demand for refrigerators is expected to be driven by the replacement market and higher demand from rural India, where the primary concern is availability of power rather than affordability. Refrigerant gases are also needed for car air-conditioners.

The size of the Indian pharmaceutical industry is poised to treble by 2015. This means more use of fluorine. However, Navin Fluorine has another source of cash.It will continue to get large carbon credits for phasing out CFC. HFC 23 is a designated greenhouse gas under the Kyoto Protocol which leads to the depletion of the ozone layer. Once released, it stays in the environment for 260 years, the longest staying time among all HFC-based gases. Emission of this gas is to be reduced under the Kyoto Protocol for which the company is implementing a clean development mechanism project. The project will install a system to capture, store and destroy HFC 23 by thermal oxidation. This is expected to generate 2.8 million CERs (certified emission reductions) or carbon credits annually for 10 years. For every metric tonne of carbon dioxide (CO2) cut, the project is awarded one CER. This assures a certain amount of cash flow for the next 10 years.

Given that, the stock is cheap. A great buy at sub 120 levels.
Source: MoneyLife

Market Cap 163.62
* EPS (TTM) 44.84
* P/E 3.61
P/C 2.83
* Book Value 226.75
* Price/Book 0.71
Div(%) 100.00
**Div Yield(%) 6.17
Market Lot 1.00
Face Value 10.00
Industry P/E 7.90

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Tuesday, July 7, 2009

Mahindra Holidays & Resorts IPO Allotment Status - Check Here

You can check wheather the Mahindra Holidays & Resorts shares have been allotted to you for your IPO application. You will need your IPO application number to check the status.

http://203.199.177.158/ipo/

Related:
Mahindra Holidays IPO - Analysis
Mahindra Holidays and Resorts IPO Is Expensive

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Buy Stocks Of Fertilizer Companies On Dips

Technical Analyst, Sudarshan Sukhani is of the view that All fertilizer stocks are buy on dips opportunities. He has recommended to buy stocks of fertilizer companies on dips in market.

Sukhani told CNBC-TV18, "All fertilizer stocks are buy on dips opportunities. It is not easy to say this dip is going to end here but certainly the focus should be on buying them. I own Nagarjuna Fertilisers."
Source: MoneyControl.com

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Saturday, July 4, 2009

Hindustan Construction Company (HCC) - Good Infrastructure Stock To Buy

THE Bandra-Worli sea link has been among the most awaited projects in Mumbai city. The 4.7 km stretch, which not surprisingly is the countrys first sea link.Hindustan Construction Company (HCC) is the company that made this possible.

A LONG WAIT
In more than one way, the excitement among the citys residents comes on the back of an arduous decade long wait before the sea link was finally done. The delay was on account of a host of reasons with a slew of public interest litigations being one of them. While the Maharashtra State Road Development Corporation (MSRDC) awarded the contract in 2000 to HCC, work on the project started full swing only in January 2005 after the go-ahead from the Supreme Court came towards the end of 2004.


Demands from various quarters that included environmentalists and fishermen took a toll on the project. There were changes made in the design of the bridge which eventually made it look pretty different from the original design. Most importantly, the cost of the project quadrupled to Rs 1,600 crore from Rs 400 crore, which was the original value of the contract.

HCC overcame all this to eventually make sure the project was done and would, in some manner, ease the infrastructure nightmare that confronts Mumbai today. For the 83 year old company, past projects include the construction of 175 road bridges which have a combined length of around 46,000 km. HCC has constructed about 34 bridges in Iraq alone. The famed Farakkah Barrage, a dam on the Ganges in West Bengal, is a project that was executed by HCC.

WHAT NOW FOR HCC
For HCC, the Bandra-Worli sea link has had an impact on its balance sheet which the company chairman Ajit Gulabchand admits to. We lost more than Rs 400 crore on the bridge due to changes in its design and delay, he says candidly. While pointing out that the project was challenging, Mr.Gulabchand adds that it was not really easy dealing with the numerous delays and litigations.

Over the last few years, HCC has already written down over Rs 400 crore on the project. It has claimed Rs 140 crore from MMRDA as cost escalation following a delay in implementing the project , says Rohit Gala, Senior Analyst, India Capital markets . Analysts are not hugely concerned by this hit on the companys balance sheet. They point out that prudent financial management helped HCC write down these losses much before the sea link was completed. HCCs current debt-equity ratio is 2.2 and the company has Rs 180 crore of cash in the bank.

HCC is a core EPC (engineering, procurement and construction) contractor and its order book of about Rs 16,500 crore is spread across three years. This is broken up into 46% coming from hydro and nuclear power related projects, 35% from transportation related projects, 15% from water related projects and the rest coming from BOT( build, operate and transfer) projects.

Market Cap 2,790.56
EPS (TTM) 4.89
P/E 22.27
P/C 11.60
* Book Value 38.62
* Price/Book 2.82
Div(%) 80.00
Div Yield(%) 0.73
Market Lot 1.00
Face Value 1.00
Industry P/E 20.27

The company is also a key player in the area of construction of nuclear power plants. A report by Angel Broking says HCC has been involved in six out of 17 nuclear power plants constructed. In the hydro power segment, it is a specialist in the construction of vital components, including dams, head and tail race tunnels and power houses .

With the governments focus on infrastructure expected to continue in the time to come, things could look rather interesting for HCC in longer term. If they manage to get pie of infrastructure projects, the company could grow substantially. One can buy stocks in small chunks whenever stock markets correct in view of this probable growth.
Ref: Economic Times

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EPF Returns Better Than Bank Fixed Deposits

At a time when banks are cutting deposit rates, there is good news for more than 4.5 crore employees of public and private sector companies the Employees Provident Fund Organization (EPFO) will continue to pay 8.5% interest for 2009-10 on their provident fund corpus.

EPF Returns Better Than Bank Fixed DepositsThis is the fifth consecutive year that EPF will pay 8.5% return, ensuring that depositors derive maximum tax benefit. While the deposit is deducted from taxable income under section 80C, the interest accrued during the period is also completely taxfree. Therefore, the effective return from the instrument is as high as 13.1%.
The decision to retain EPF return at 8.5% was taken under the chairmanship of labour minister Mallikarjun Kharge and will be sent to finance ministry for ratification.

Sources said since the expected earnings from the EPF corpus of Rs 1.82 lakh crore during 2009-10 will cover the return of 8.5%, the decision should pass muster with the finance ministry. In fact, EPFO will be left with a surplus of Rs 6.4 crore during the period after paying a return of 8.5%.
Source: Times Of India

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India Is In Long Term Bull Run - Rakesh Jhunjhunwala On Stock Markets

The last three months have seen markets rebound wordwide. India has also joined the party. The election results have further fuelled the rally and raised expectations of reform and change in India. It has reaffirmed faith in India’s democracy and political system.

India Is In Long Term Bull Run - Rakesh Jhunjhunwala On Stock MarketsThe rise in India has been accompanied by tremendous breadth and volumes. Going by technical factors, in the short term, we are most likely headed higher. I think the rally will also be driven by the rise in the risk appetite worldwide as is demonstrated by the weakness in the US dollar. In the medium term, what happens in the market will depend, in a large measure, upon the performance of the international markets and the extent to which the new Indian government meets expectations. In the long term, I’m of the firm opinion that the Indian bull market is very much alive and kicking. I think the triggers for the market going ahead can be broadly classified into domestic and international factors.

Domestically, the most important aspect is government policy, mainly the thrust on reforms. I will first discuss reforms which, to my mind, are most important for India and its economy and, by extension, our stock markets over the longer term. Top of my list is a comprehensive review of the subsidy regime in India. In my opinion, all subsidies should be relooked at with an open mind. One possible alternative could be to give cash compensation every month to a lady in each needy household.

This will put an end to the misuse of the subsidy regime and will allow for free pricing and competition in many sectors. Agriculture, too, I feel, requires special attention. We have to work towards a second green revolution as I feel there will be a surge in demand globally for agricultural products. Then, we need to frame policies which facilitate investment and economic activity. We need to do away with the hurdles in land acquisition for vital projects by having an effective legislation. It should be ensured that environmental policies do not become unnecessary impediments to projects. We must speedily review some of our archaic laws like the Indian Telegraph Act, 1884. Then, technology can be used to cut through the bureaucratic red tape.

In the short to medium term, the triggers for the market would be a change in FDI laws in insurance and banking, PSU disinvestment, labour law reforms and introduction of GST by April 1, 2010 as planned. Markets are also hoping for a review in the guidelines for foreign investment in stock markets. We need to allow any foreign entity, including individuals, to invest in our stock markets with a simple declaration certified by a qualified banker’s “know your client” rules.

International events, too, would influence the market. India’s relationships with its unstable neighbours, the stability of the international financial system and the value of the dollar, the pace and the quantum of economic recovery worldwide, especially in the developed world, would all be reflected in the gyrations of the Sensex and the Nifty. In the end, let me point out that in the last 6-7 years, Indian stock market has outperformed the markets across the world. I feel this will continue over the long term as India will remain one of the fastest-growing economies in the world. Also, India has one of the highest saving rates in the world coupled with a very well organised and regulated stock market.

Very little of this savings today comes into the stock markets. With the development of telecommunications, spread of television and growth in literacy, more of these savings will find their way into the equity markets. I think most analysts are vastly underestimating the effect of this mountain of savings entering the stock market over a longer term horizon.
Source: Article In BusinessToday By Rakesh Jhunjhunwala

Read More
Rakesh Jhunjhunwala On Future Of Indian Stock Markets
Rakesh Jhunjhunwala - Latest Portfolio Changes And His Strategy
Rakesh Jhunjhunwala Portfolio - Latest As In December 2008

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Friday, July 3, 2009

Stocks Trading At All-Time High P/E Ratio

Some of the stocks are trading at their all-time high price to earning ratio. Rise in stock price in a declining market normally passes off as a sign of healthy fundamentals. But when the Indian and global markets were into a free fall last year, there was almost no stock in the domestic market that bucked the trend on the basis of business performance. Should you buy stocks at very high P/E ratio? Let's try finding it out.

Even though NIfty at 4400 levels is still 50-60 per cent short of its all-time high of 6287 on 8 January 2008, market exuberance has led to many companies’ share prices raising their price to earnings (P/E) ratios — number of times the market price is more than the ‘earnings per share’ — to extremely high levels.

While in the western markets, P/Es don’t go above 100 even at the peak of a bull run, in India P/Es are already going past the 100 mark even though the market is nowhere near its peak. Between 1 May and 10 June, the rampage in the market has caused at least 10 P/Es to go past 100 (see ‘Significant Numbers’), the reigning leader being MMTC. Another 11 stocks had P/Es between 50 and 100, including Aditya Birla Nuvo, Kotak Mahindra Bank, IRB Infrastructure Developers, Jai Corp., Adani Enterprises and Television Eighteen India. P/Es aside, the traded prices of five Sensex or Nifty stocks and 10 BSE-200 index stocks have crossed their earlier all-time highs during this period. “Five index stocks out of 50 total index stocks is a decent number to warrant notice,” says Anand Tandon, head of equities at Brics Securities.


Fundamentals can only partly explain the euphoric sentiments. “It may be due to performance over expectations by the market from these companies in the next two years,” says Nandan Chakraborty, vice president-research at Enam Securities. The stocks reaching their all-time P/E or traded peaks are not from two or three sectors alone. They are spread out across five or six sectors. But sectors such as consumer goods and pharmaceuticals, which were not exactly the darlings of the stockmarket in the bull rally of 2006-07, are standing out in the ongoing current rally much more than others.

So are some other sectors. Realty and infrastructure stocks are still registering extreme valuations similar to what they did about two years ago. In two-wheelers, Hero Honda touched an all-time high of Rs 1,588 on 19 May. “In cement and auto sectors, the demand growth has been outstanding,” says Chakraborty. “Such sectors relatively did not participate in the 2007 bull rally and in last year’s bear phase, they got knocked out like every other stock.”


So, should investors buy stocks at P/Es of 50 and above? Is there any further momentum left in these stocks? Under the current circumstances, restraint may be better than adventurism to avoid the blood bath of the recent past.
Source: Businessworld Issue Dated 16-22 June 2009

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Wednesday, July 1, 2009

GOLD ETF Mutual Funds - Most Hassle-free Option To Invest In Gold

Gold has suddenly become a preferred investment option thanks to economic turmoil. Not surprising, as it was always considered a safe hedge against such developments.

However, it need not necessarily come into your investment radar only during uncertainty. According to investment experts, gold should always be part of the portfolio of a person who wants to preserve his wealth.

Diversification is an important to tool to preserve ones wealth over a long period. When we talk to our clients we tell them fixed deposits, corporate deposits, stocks, gold... all should be part of their portfolio , says a wealth manager with a bank. We explain to them that spreading their investments across asset classes will help them withstand the bad performance of a particular investment.

For example, recently investments in gold fetched handsome returns when stocks were faring badly , he adds. However, the new crop of investors have left financial advisors a worried lot. They say most new investors have unrealistic expectations from gold. Most remember that gold had given very high returns a few months ago. They believe it would happen often, says the wealth manager.

Transcend Consulting director Kartik Jhaveri says, Investors should not focus on such sporadic returns. It is mainly because of volatility. For example, the dollars weakness, crude prices going up, uncertainties in the global economy would have a positive impact on gold prices. He says, Over a long period gold would give around 6-8 % returns. If you look at the returns in 10 years, it would just about beat inflation. Another dilemma faced by investors, point out consultants, is that they dont have a definitive idea about which is the ideal form of investing in gold. Many investors apparently would still prefer buying gold coins and bars sold by reputed banks (if not jewellery) and safe-keep them in their bank locker.

GOLD  ETF Mutual Funds - Most Hassle-free Option To Invest In Gold
This method, according to investment experts , is the least preferred and inefficient option . This because most banks dont buy back gold and the investor must then turn to retailers to strike a good deal. Meanwhile in the retail market, often jewellers prefer exchanging the coins or bars with ornaments itself rather than pay cash to such customers. So, if you are investing in physical gold, be prepared for some hiccups when it comes to liquidating it. Jhaveri says it is better for investors to go for exchange-traded gold funds, especially if they are looking for a hassle-free investment option. These are mutual fund schemes investing in gold that you can buy and sell in a stock exchange. Since you dont own gold in the physical form, you dont have to worry about liquidating it. You can sell the units of the scheme in a stock exchange at prevailing prices. Though it may look the most convenient form of owning gold, the idea is yet to catch up with common investors, say financial consultants.

If you are a bit more adventurous, then you may consider directly owning stocks of some gold mining companies. Sure, they carry more risk, but they can also reward you, says Jhaveri. If you have even more appetite for risk, you may even consider trading in gold futures in the commodity market.

Read more on Gold-ETF

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Small Cap Stock Idea - Nile Ltd.

Nile is an ISO 9001 certified Company manufacturing world class Glass Lined Equipment, Pressure Vessels, Lead and Lead Alloys. Check out this small cap to consider buying stocks in small chunk to add in your portfolio.

Nile is a different class of company; it operates in the capital goods space and also into commodity space.It manufactures the glass line reactors and pressure vessels particularly for the pharma industry and is also into processing of lead and lead alloys from waste lead. It has a tie up with Amar Raja for supplying lead.It is uniquely positioned company with very low equity. It is positioned ideally for a take off from here. Somewhere down the line, value addition would come to the company’s bottomline in a very big way both from glass line reactors and pressure vessels and lead.

In 2-4 years time period, Nile can be a multi-bagger stock.

Market Cap 19.48
EPS (TTM) -
P/E -
P/C -
* Book Value 84.38
* Price/Book 0.77
Div(%) 40.00
Div Yield(%) 6.16
Market Lot 1.00
Face Value 10.00
Industry P/E 23.20

Shareholding pattern
Promoters shareholding: 45.55%
FI's/Banks: 12.20
Public shareholding: 42.25%

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Small Cap Stock To Buy - A Multibagger Potential

Have a look at this low valued small cap stock which could be a multibagger once economic condtions change. You may buy stocks of this company as small part of your portfolio to make gains whenever the business comes back on track and stock gets re-rated in stock markets.

How much would it cost to set up a company manufacturing 6,600 tonnes of calcium hypochlorite, 9,900 tonnes of stable bleaching powder, 2,400 tonnes of monochloro acetic acid, 49,500 tonnes of sulphuric acid, 33,000 tonnes of chlorosulphonic acid, 65 tonnes of bromine across four factories in Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu and allied services like a 9MW biomass power project? Certainly not Rs14 crore, which would hardly cover the cost of land, factory and office buildings and a few basic facilities. The cost would probably run into Rs100 crore. But just Rs14 crore is the market-cap of SRHHL (formerly Sree Rayalaseema Hi-Strength Hypo Ltd).

Market Cap 96.79
EPS (TTM) 6.78
P/E 2.12
P/C 1.24
* Book Value 23.81
Price/Book 0.60
Div(%) 0.00
Div Yield(%) -
Market Lot 1.00
Face Value 10.00
Industry P/E 7.56

Nearly 45% of SRHHL’s total turnover comes from calcium hypochlorite which is exported all over the world. The company belongs to the prosperous TGV group of Andhra Pradesh which has other businesses such as caustic chlorine (Sree Rayalaseema Alkalies and Allied Chemicals), a three-star hotel, theatres and educational institutions.The problem is that the com-pany’s turnover for 2007-08 hardly budged from Rs115 crore to Rs121 crore. Also, it reported a lower profit after tax of Rs4.75crore, down from Rs5.61 crore.

The EPS (earning per share) was Rs4.66 but SRHHL skipped dividend ostensibly because the company was expanding the capacities of all its production units and needed to conserve cash. It has now increased its production capacities but demand has turned sluggish. You would think that it would be saddled with higher capacity for a while. Interestingly, over the nine months of the current year, sales and profits have been rocketing. The turnover was Rs163 crore, which was 135% of the entire turnover of 2007-08. Profit after tax over nine months was Rs12.88 crore, a surprisingly large jump. The improved performance has been possible due to higher volumes and better realisation in exports due to a weak rupee. For 2008-09, the company should post sales of Rs210 crore; and net profit should be Rs20.75 crore, translating into an EPS of Rs20.36.

Apparently, thepromoters have been increasing their stake by acquiring shares from the open market. At the current market price of Rs14, the market-cap is just Rs14.4 crore, although gross block alone is Rs65 crore and net block is Rs55crore. The stock is trading at just 0.72 times its EPS of 2008-09.

Shareholding pattern
Promoters: 41.57%
Financial institutions / Banks: 42.20%
Public shareholding: 16.24%

Small companies always suffer from low valuations but a PE ratio of 0.7 looks just too cheap.Listed on both the BSE and the NSE, the scrip is probably going cheap due to the poor investment climate at present and investor ignorance about this company. Worth a bet but not a stock for the long term, given the way the company’s financials are gyrating.
Source: Lakshman.

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