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Thursday, September 25, 2008

Stocks you can invest in - LUPIN, OPTO CIRCUITS

Lupin
CMP: Rs 721
Target Price: Rs 938

Citigroup Global Markets has maintained its ‘buy’ recommendation on the stock saying the company’s initiative to build a global presence through small acquisitions and the buyout of a majority stake in Pharma Dynamics of South Africa would boost inorganic growth.

“This is the company’s third acquisition in FY09 after Hormosan (Germany) and a minority stake in Generic Health (Australia). We believe the small size has kept valuations reasonable & expect all deals to be EPS and RoI accretive from FY10,” said Citi in a note to its clients.

Citi has rated Lupin as ‘medium risk’ citing generic competition in Suprax (around 5% & 16% of sales & PBT) as the key reason. According to Citi, rising input costs due to Chinese government’s crackdown on environmentally unfriendly plants could hurt profitability. “Inability to effectively integrate the Kyowa acquisition could take a heavy toll on profitability as well as return ratios,” added the Citi note.


Opto Circuits
CMP: Rs 287.25
Target Price: Rs 463

Kotak Securities has maintained a ‘buy’ rating on the stock saying the valuations are very attractive considering the strong market positioning, potential introduction of new products, front end R&D set up (with the Criticare acquisition) and strong management.

The brokerage expects OCIL to register a 56.7% and 43.7% compounded growth in revenues and earnings, respectively over the next two years. It expects revenue growth of 73.9% to Rs 8.1 billion and net profit growth of 43.5% to Rs 1.9 billion in FY09.

“The key growth drivers for topline would likely to be stents business which is expected to grow at about 80% while non-invasive segment is expected to grow at 77%, mainly due to Criticare acquisition,” said the Kotak note. According to Kotak, net profit margin is likely to decline to 23.8% in FY10 as against 28.3% in FY08 mainly due to higher interest cost.

“The company has raised $52 million debt to fund the Criticare acquisition. We expect 43% and 44% growth in EPS in FY09 and FY10, respectively. In FY09, we expect EPS of Rs.20.2 while in FY10 we expect EPS of Rs.29,” the note added.
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