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Thursday, June 25, 2009

Infrastructure Sector - Best Sector To Invest For Next Atleast 10 Years

I was reading through a news article on one site about Mutual funds buying stocks of Infrastructure companies in India. Here are my thoughts on the same and the original news article as well.

Infrastructure as a whole is big story in India looking at the growth trajectory country has been experiencing in past few years. To sustain this growth and even achieve higher numbers, what India now needs is the best of infrastructure that we can have. And the government formed by Congress in Delhi knows it well. It is obvious that country is going to witness increasing number of infrastructure projects being announced for execution in next few years to build world class infrastructure in India for sustained growth and to attract more and more foreign investments. Have you seen those metro rails being built? Or the expressways being built? Or the flyover network Or New national highways Or New Airport terminals? If Yes, You have seen the growth in infrastructure sector. Question is, if you should become the part of this growth and ride the infrastructure story to mint money from your investments in next few years!

Infrastructure shares are hot commodities to buy for mutual funds in India after the recent elections, and their attraction is only set to grow as the new government lays out plans to improve the country's overburdened roads and bridges in next month's budget.

Fund managers are hoping the new government will bolster spending on infrastructure, remove policy bottlenecks by easing land acquisition rules and environmental clearances, amend labour laws and simplify procedures for project approvals.

Fund managers are also betting on a pick-up in earnings for such firms later this year, helped by lower interest rates and commodity prices and a revival in economic growth.

"Basically the opportunity is very big," said Sankaran Naren, equity chief investment officer at ICICI Prudential. All that is required is for everything to be lubricated properly. I am interested in clarity," Naren, who manages about $780 million in India's biggest infrastructure mutual fund, added.

Engineering firms Bharat Heavy Electricals, Larsen & Toubro, Crompton Greaves and Reliance Infrastructure, were among the 20 most popular stocks for domestic fund managers in May.

The shopping list also included construction firms Jaiprakash Associates and Punj Lloyd, as funds sought exposure to sectors such as power and construction.

India's biggest fund firm, Reliance Capital, is raising money for a new infrastructure offering, while rival Tata Mutual Fund sought approval this month to launch its fourth such fund.

SBI Funds Management, French insurer AXA, Sundaram BNP Paribas, Franklin Templeton and Deutsche Bank have also sought approval for infrastructure funds in June.

Fund managers are excited by the prospects for reforms after India gave the Congress-led coalition the most decisive election mandate in two decades, freeing it from the support of the Left and communist parties, which had stalled planned reforms.

India estimates it needs $500 billion over the five years to 2012 to upgrade its overwhelmed airports, potholed roads and inadequate utilities but has lagged in making critical reforms needed to do so, holding back potential gains for investors.

The sector suffered a blow last year as the economy slowed from 9 per cent in 2007/08 to less than 7 per cent and a global credit crunch starved infrastructure firms of funds.

But the gloom seems to be diminishing.

India is expected to expand at 8 per cent in 2010, the fastest among major economies in the world, and 8.5 per cent the year after, matching China's growth rate, according to a World Bank report released on Monday.

An improvement in growth prospects is likely to boost fund flows, especially to the high-beta infrastructure sector.

The sector could also get a lift later this week when the S&P CNX Nifty index shifts to a free-float market cap methodology, giving higher weight to some infrastructure stocks.

However, India faces plenty of execution risk.

"While there is always a fear of disappointment when expectations are very high, in our view, the government could focus on low hanging fruit and still deliver a lot," JPMorgan's domestic fund unit said in its latest fact sheet.

HUGE POTENTIAL
Few would doubt the opportunity in domestic infrastructure.

India's peak power capacity is nearly 14 per cent short of demand, while its transmission and distribution losses are a staggering 40 per cent, according to Planning Commission data.

Only 2 per cent, or 65,590 kilometres, of roads are national highways but carry 40 per cent of traffic, while less than half of agricultural land is irrigated, it said.

Ports are running at 95 per cent of capacity with demand rising at 10 per cent annually, Tata Asset Management data showed.

But to grow at 9 per cent India needs to invest 9 per cent of its GDP to boost infrastructure from less than 6 per cent now.

For a graphic on planned investment by sector, click here

"Achievements in the past five years will pale in comparison with what we will see in the next five years because of the scale at which these activities are going to be happening," said Sanjay Sinha, chief executive of DBS Cholamandalam Asset Management.

Infrastructure funds are the most popular in India by sector, with 18 of them managing nearly Rs 16000 crore ($3.3 billion) at the end of May, according to fund tracker ICRA Online.

"This is a 10 to 20-year catch-up story, years of servicing and supplying, and then another cycle of upgrading and replacing," said Seth R. Freeman, chief investment officer of US money manager EM Capital Management.

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