SP Tulsian has recommended to buy stocks of Ugar Sugar in his stock analysis report. This article is from series "Stocks To Buy Below Rs.50 in 2010"
Ugar Sugar has not participated in the run up for a simple reason that for September 2009, the company had posted a net loss. This has been scaring investors and keeping them away. The state with the most advantage in the sugar sector is Karnataka because there you have a recovery of 11.5-12% plus you are not seeing such a hue and cry for the sugarcane price as well.
All the mills, whether it is Ugar or Renuka Sugar are paying a price of about Rs 240-250 for a recovery of 11.5% which translates to an equivalent price with 10% recovery to about Rs 220.
Now this company has recently commissioned a new mill of 2,500 tonne in this season. The old mill at Ugar had a capacity of about 10,000 tcd. If you take any sugar mill in the country, I do not think that anyone will be able to exceed the production what they have done in the previous years because of the overall low production of sugar expected in the country.
However, this company is likely produce about 17 lakh bags of sugar for this season against 15.5 lakh in the previous year.
Apart from that they have 56 megawatt (MW) cogeneration capacity. Even the debt portion of the company is not very stiff. It is at about Rs 130-140 crore which has largely realized to finance the working capital. The December quarter results are likely to be quite good. The company should be able to post a profit after tax (PAT) of about Rs 36-40 crore on an equity of about Rs 11.25 crore, which is at present.
So once the results are out for the December quarter, we all know that even in the March quarter there will be more sweeteners because of the increase in prices and operation of the cogeneration plant. These two quarters can drastically change the view on the stock. I won’t be surprised if this stock reaches about Rs 35 maybe by April end in this year.
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